Geração de cenários 34
No correlograma é possível encontrar alguns outliers que não comprometem
o ajuste do modelo.
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cor(X1-0.04,(X1-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X1-0.04,(X2-0.11)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X1-0.04,(X3-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X1-0.04,(X4-0.10)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
Cor(X1-0.04,(X5-0.14)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X2-0.11,(X1-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X2-0.11,(X2-0.11)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X2-0.11,(X3-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X2-0.11,(X4-0.10)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
Cor(X2-0.11,(X5-0.14)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X3-0.04,(X1-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X3-0.04,(X2-0.11)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X3-0.04,(X3-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X3-0.04,(X4-0.10)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
Cor(X3-0.04,(X5-0.14)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X4-0.10,(X1-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X4-0.10,(X2-0.11)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X4-0.10,(X3-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X4-0.10,(X4-0.10)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
Cor(X4-0.10,(X5-0.14)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X5-0.14,(X1-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X5-0.14,(X2-0.11)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X5-0.14,(X3-0.04)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12
Cor(X5-0.14,(X4-0.10)(-i))
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
Cor(X5-0.14,(X5-0.14)(-i))
Autocorrelations with 2 Std.Err. Bounds
No teste LM é aceita a hipótese nula para um nível de significância de 0,5%
e para todas as defasagens. Considerando que a única defasagem que apresenta
um p-valor menor que 1% será considerado que não há correlação serial dos
resíduos.
VAR Residual Serial Correlation LM
H0: no serial correlation at lag order h
Date: 01/16/08 Time: 18:00
Sample: 1996Q2 2007Q2
Included observations: 44
Lags LM-Stat Prob
1 46.76944 0.0052
2 32.57312 0.1421
3 29.51903 0.2428
4 23.98112 0.5205
5 37.79575 0.0484
6 17.61537 0.8583
7 22.78966 0.5898
8 37.12698 0.0562
9 22.80507 0.5889
10 15.89880 0.9178
11 20.18159 0.7372
12 27.08200 0.3518
Probs from chi-square with 25 df.