Estimando um Modelo VAR para a ETTJ no Brasil 55
Selic s30 s60 s90 s120 s180 s360 s720
Selic(-1) 1.189396 0.676290 0.422887 0.132986 -0.167410 -0.534827 -1.282087 -1.838919
Erro padr˜ao (0.26618) (0.42038) (0.47405) (0.53244) (0.54171) (0.60158) (0.74799) (0.97756)
Estat´ıstica t [ 4.46847] [ 1.60876] [ 0.89206] [ 0.24977] [-0.30904] [-0.88903] [-1.71404] [-1.88114]
Selic(-2) -0.085828 -0.354451 -0.479760 -0.601263 -0.747456 -0.767580 -0.940493 -0.915393
Erro padr˜ao (0.31779) (0.50190) (0.56598) (0.63569) (0.64675) (0.71824) (0.89304) (1.16712)
Estat´ıstica t [-0.27008] [-0.70622] [-0.84766] [-0.94585] [-1.15571] [-1.06869] [-1.05313] [-0.78432]
Selic(-3) -0.130736 -0.025924 0.007487 0.135214 0.321179 0.544645 1.010847 1.300160
Erro padr˜ao (0.19660) (0.31049) (0.35013) (0.39326) (0.40010) (0.44433) (0.55246) (0.72202)
Estat´ıstica t [-0.66500] [-0.08349] [ 0.02138] [ 0.34383] [ 0.80274] [ 1.22577] [ 1.82970] [ 1.80073]
s30(-1) -0.370343 -0.905565 -0.871418 -0.847543 -0.397296 -0.080013 0.652725 1.040249
Erro padr˜ao (0.64256) (1.01481) (1.14438) (1.28532) (1.30769) (1.45224) (1.80568) (2.35985)
Estat´ıstica t [-0.57636] [-0.89235] [-0.76147] [-0.65940] [-0.30381] [-0.05510] [ 0.36148] [ 0.44081]
s30(-2) -0.597405 0.036630 0.262325 0.385820 0.595760 0.811130 1.014985 0.807907
Erro padr˜ao (0.45982) (0.72621) (0.81894) (0.91980) (0.93581) (1.03925) (1.29217) (1.68875)
Estat´ıstica t [-1.29921] [ 0.05044] [ 0.32032] [ 0.41946] [ 0.63663] [ 0.78050] [ 0.78549] [ 0.47841]
s30(-3) 0.555589 0.640501 0.785642 0.896726 0.731970 0.501328 0.250822 -0.050075
Erro padr˜ao (0.34992) (0.55264) (0.62320) (0.69996) (0.71214) (0.79086) (0.98333) (1.28512)
Estat´ıstica t [ 1.58776] [ 1.15898] [ 1.26065] [ 1.28112] [ 1.02785] [ 0.63390] [ 0.25507] [-0.03896]
s60(-1) -0.086696 0.769810 0.666528 0.909843 0.753861 0.979927 1.247391 0.967151
Erro padr˜ao (0.89231) (1.40925) (1.58918) (1.78490) (1.81597) (2.01671) (2.50751) (3.27709)
Estat´ıstica t [-0.09716] [ 0.54625] [ 0.41942] [ 0.50974] [ 0.41513] [ 0.48590] [ 0.49746] [ 0.29513]
s60(-2) -0.533541 -1.133482 -1.122183 -0.980256 -0.794578 -1.122754 -0.591392 -0.265162
Erro padr˜ao (0.65627) (1.03648) (1.16882) (1.31276) (1.33561) (1.48325) (1.84423) (2.41024)
Estat´ıstica t [-0.81299] [-1.09359] [-0.96010] [-0.74671] [-0.59492] [-0.75695] [-0.32067] [-0.11002]
s60(-3) -0.870975 -2.140343 -2.638685 -3.304827 -3.540786 -3.867190 -4.493875 -4.636687
Erro padr˜ao (0.53553) (0.84578) (0.95377) (1.07124) (1.08988) (1.21036) (1.50492) (1.96679)
Estat´ıstica t [-1.62638] [-2.53060] [-2.76657] [-3.08505] [-3.24877] [-3.19508] [-2.98611] [-2.35748]
s90(-1) 1.730819 4.547308 5.558495 5.882947 5.631799 5.463567 5.117647 5.526259
Erro padr˜ao (0.83031) (1.31134) (1.47877) (1.66089) (1.68980) (1.87659) (2.33329) (3.04939)
Estat´ıstica t [ 2.08455] [ 3.46769] [ 3.75887] [ 3.54205] [ 3.33283] [ 2.91144] [ 2.19332] [ 1.81225]
s90(-2) 2.389033 1.794918 1.163655 0.712931 -0.159669 -0.739965 -2.282823 -3.175765
Erro padr˜ao (0.82597) (1.30448) (1.47104) (1.65221) (1.68096) (1.86678) (2.32110) (3.03345)
Estat´ıstica t [ 2.89241] [ 1.37596] [ 0.79104] [ 0.43150] [-0.09499] [-0.39639] [-0.98351] [-1.04691]
s90(-3) 0.613742 1.711780 2.402864 3.195191 3.568423 4.719119 6.402984 8.163456
Erro padr˜ao (0.81334) (1.28455) (1.44856) (1.62696) (1.65527) (1.83825) (2.28562) (2.98709)
Estat´ıstica t [ 0.75459] [ 1.33260] [ 1.65880] [ 1.96391] [ 2.15579] [ 2.56719] [ 2.80142] [ 2.73291]
s120(-1) -1.347155 -4.861848 -5.843206 -6.394761 -6.472409 -6.838048 -6.513449 -6.052024
Erro padr˜ao (0.94312) (1.48951) (1.67969) (1.88655) (1.91939) (2.13156) (2.65031) (3.46371)
Estat´ıstica t [-1.42840] [-3.26407] [-3.47875] [-3.38965] [-3.37212] [-3.20801] [-2.45761] [-1.74727]
s120(-2) -2.291799 -1.680522 -1.203712 -1.260827 -0.334103 0.563674 0.828970 1.224233
Erro padr˜ao (1.01376) (1.60106) (1.80549) (2.02785) (2.06314) (2.29120) (2.84881) (3.72313)
Estat´ıstica t [-2.26070] [-1.04963] [-0.66670] [-0.62176] [-0.16194] [ 0.24602] [ 0.29099] [ 0.32882]
s120(-3) -0.480826 0.546908 0.328502 0.156674 0.305521 -0.385420 -1.224988 -2.968882
Erro padr˜ao (0.92868) (1.46671) (1.65398) (1.85768) (1.89001) (2.09893) (2.60975) (3.41069)
Estat´ıstica t [-0.51775] [ 0.37288] [ 0.19861] [ 0.08434] [ 0.16165] [-0.18363] [-0.46939] [-0.87046]
s180(-1) -0.314744 -0.461253 -0.510587 -0.655418 -0.477001 -0.591589 -2.107984 -3.597164
Erro padr˜ao (0.58545) (0.92462) (1.04267) (1.17109) (1.19147) (1.32317) (1.64519) (2.15011)
Estat´ıstica t [-0.53761] [-0.49886] [-0.48969] [-0.55967] [-0.40035] [-0.44710] [-1.28130] [-1.67301]
s180(-2) 0.920230 1.751638 1.994602 2.743853 2.522872 2.679623 4.559329 6.303311
Erro padr˜ao (0.65049) (1.02735) (1.15852) (1.30120) (1.32385) (1.47019) (1.82799) (2.38901)
Estat´ıstica t [ 1.41466] [ 1.70500] [ 1.72168] [ 2.10870] [ 1.90570] [ 1.82264] [ 2.49418] [ 2.63846]
s180(-3) 0.499017 -0.652674 -0.871653 -1.153362 -1.569385 -1.930658 -3.101030 -3.474089
Erro padr˜ao (0.70299) (1.11026) (1.25202) (1.40621) (1.43069) (1.58884) (1.97551) (2.58181)
Estat´ıstica t [ 0.70985] [-0.58786] [-0.69620] [-0.82019] [-1.09694] [-1.21514] [-1.56974] [-1.34560]
s360(-1) 0.564554 1.525963 1.813065 2.109606 2.249127 2.600272 3.095821 2.753998
Erro padr˜ao (0.33106) (0.52285) (0.58961) (0.66223) (0.67375) (0.74823) (0.93033) (1.21585)
Estat´ıstica t [ 1.70530] [ 2.91853] [ 3.07502] [ 3.18563] [ 3.33821] [ 3.47524] [ 3.32767] [ 2.26508]
s360(-2) 0.105685 -0.042518 -0.119504 -0.385615 -0.432500 -0.711604 -1.268343 -2.165744
Erro padr˜ao (0.36582) (0.57775) (0.65151) (0.73175) (0.74449) (0.82678) (1.02800) (1.34350)
Estat´ıstica t [ 0.28890] [-0.07359] [-0.18342] [-0.52697] [-0.58093] [-0.86069] [-1.23380] [-1.61202]
s360(-3) -0.279050 -0.397723 -0.361981 -0.304925 -0.209071 0.034969 0.702889 1.219886
Erro padr˜ao (0.34240) (0.54077) (0.60982) (0.68492) (0.69684) (0.77387) (0.96221) (1.25752)
Estat´ıstica t [-0.81497] [-0.73547] [-0.59359] [-0.44520] [-0.30003] [ 0.04519] [ 0.73050] [ 0.97007]
s720(-1) -0.196651 -0.378733 -0.396688 -0.382480 -0.381945 -0.299415 0.286837 1.395579
Erro padr˜ao (0.14548) (0.22975) (0.25909) (0.29100) (0.29606) (0.32879) (0.40881) (0.53427)
Estat´ıstica t [-1.35179] [-1.64843] [-1.53109] [-1.31437] [-1.29008] [-0.91066] [ 0.70164] [ 2.61211]
s720(-2) -0.191698 -0.490635 -0.584391 -0.679074 -0.719169 -0.795051 -1.282338 -1.620225
Erro padr˜ao (0.18709) (0.29548) (0.33321) (0.37424) (0.38076) (0.42284) (0.52575) (0.68711)
Estat´ıstica t [-1.02463] [-1.66048] [-1.75385] [-1.81453] [-1.88879] [-1.88025] [-2.43906] [-2.35803]
s720(-3) 0.171167 0.432772 0.486309 0.552050 0.578667 0.593925 0.702344 0.814225
Erro padr˜ao (0.14160) (0.22363) (0.25218) (0.28324) (0.28817) (0.32002) (0.39791) (0.52003)
Estat´ıstica t [ 1.20883] [ 1.93522] [ 1.92840] [ 1.94905] [ 2.00807] [ 1.85587] [ 1.76509] [ 1.56573]
C 0.005875 0.015137 0.018935 0.023382 0.024818 0.029679 0.036831 0.041347
Erro padr˜ao (0.00364) (0.00575) (0.00648) (0.00728) (0.00741) (0.00823) (0.01023) (0.01337)
Estat´ıstica t [ 1.61396] [ 2.63292] [ 2.92077] [ 3.21119] [ 3.35009] [ 3.60740] [ 3.60052] [ 3.09280]
Tabela A.18: Modelo VAR com todas as taxas e trˆes defasagens.
PUC-Rio - Certificação Digital Nº 0410410/CA